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Headline News
2025 Slowest Year In Real Estate sales since 1995
Growing Inventory, slowing sales
Each Fall, housing inventory continues to grow, while buyers slow down, this year is no exception
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/homes-sales-housing-market-weekly-report-october-9-2025/
Click bait headlines report these trends as if they are unprecedented - These graphs show trends similar to patterns we have seen happen nationwide and through several decades.
Historical Trends
New Listings most frequent March-October
Most homes to choose from in October
Month Supply is the time it takes for the current active listings to deplete at the current sales pace. Very low in spring and summer despite having the most new listings, indicating higher buyer activity
Sale Price/Original Listing Price is highest in May and lowest in January but is a 2-6 week lagging indicator based on a successful sale and doesn’t include the original prices of prior unsuccessful listings (a home may have taken several listings over many months to sell).
Average time on market lowest in May, highest in December and doesn’t include the time a listing has spent on market in a prior unsuccessful listing (a home may have taken several listings over many months to sell).
New loan applications peak mid to late January each year.
Yellow markers indicate the highest point of applications in each year (January); Blue marker is the last reported data for that year (End of December)
National average time a buyer closes after their most recent preapproval is 50-days with a 45 day transaction. It is common in Seattle Greater to search for 3-9 months and transact in 15-28 days.
FAQ on mortgage rates
Brian’s Client Q&A:
Question: If fed rates don’t affect mortgage rates, what does?
Answer: 10Y Treasury bond, Inflation/CPI/Jobs Reports, World Events.
https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics
https://www.epi.org/indicators/unemployment/
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
News in Three
Periodic video updates on local news and market updates. When major updates occur, a video will appear below.
Brian’s Forecast
Q4’25 Avg 7% (fluctuating 6.75-7.25); Q1’26 6.75% (fluctuating 6.5-7); Q2’26 6.25% (fluctuating 6-6.5).
Reminder: mortgage rates are not affected by fed decisions but 10-yr bond - 10 yr bond rates affected by inflation and investor’s willingness to invest in bonds vs stocks.
Brian’s Client Tip: 1% decrease in interest CAN roughly equal to 10% more borrowing power but even a 0.5% fluctuation changes buyer demand (and thus competition) the week or two after the fluctuation hits headlines.
https://money.usnews.com/loans/mortgages/mortgage-rate-forecastBrian’s Client Q&A: If fed rates don’t affect mortgage rates, what does? 10Y Treasury bond, CPI/Jobs Reports
https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics
https://www.epi.org/indicators/unemployment/
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Increased buyer competition in Q1/Q2’26
Widespread use of escalation clauses with promises to pay additional down in case of low appraisals or even waived financing in all of 2025 from the vast number of sidelined buyers, our growing population, Amazon and half dozen major companies returning to full return to office, and those “typical” new buyers each spring/summer.
Improved condo market from increased DT workers. Also increased metro traffic will increase desired urban living or at least pied-à-terres.
Bully offers will increase in the Eastside in Q1 and Seattle + Seattle metro will see frequent bully offers by Q2.
Increased absorption rate and decreased monthly supply due to World class events like 2025 FIFA World Cup next year will increase buyer activity before Seattle’s hosting of FIFA’s ‘26 World Cup but won’t encourage sellers to sell
Continued low inventory at least into next decade
Minor bump in inventory in 2026 as more sellers will be more comfortable becoming buyers themselves with the lower interest rates and increased consumer confidence.
All economists agree of not enough housing at least through the decade nationwide but especially in Seattle metro where for decades it has been normal to only have 3-4 month inventory opposed to a “balanced” 6 months